Meet the New Europe (same as the Old Europe)
The lead-up to the American invasion of Iraq is the realization of the great dream of European diplomacy of the 19th and 20th centuries. George Bush has been able to achieve what Napoleon, Metternich, Bismark, Stalin, Hitler and De Gaul never could: the basis of a durable alliance between France, Germany and Russia. Unfortunately, the United States has not given them a common interest so much as a common enemy. Most surprisingly, Great Britain, the historic object of whose diplomacy was precisely to keep such an alliance from ever taking shape, has been our willing partner.
It is still early to assess the implications of this shift, or whether the hard facts of geopolitics are enough to divide counties that share essentially democratic values (yes, even Russia). Nevertheless, if the fissures that have emerged over Bush’s foreign policy in general, and Iraq in particular, hold, the emergence of a new adversarial central European alliance the single most troubling development of this whole situation.
Over the last century, we have grown accustomed to seeing our competitors in terms of ideology, not geopolitics. Now that the main ideological competitor to democracy/capitalism has largely vanished, the old issues (which always lurked behind the ideological rivalry in any case) are likely to return to the fore: access to resources, protection of domestic markets, proximity to strategic regions, influence over client states, etc. The emergence of a formidable competitor to American interests in Eurasia – even one whose fundamental ideology is less adversarial than that of the old Soviet Union – is a development that holds considerably more peril for the US in the long-term than even the problem of international terrorism.
Here in America, we are taught that we enjoy certain unique historical and geographical advantages over “old Europe.” Maybe so, but it is also the case that Europe enjoys some advantages over us, particularly if you add Russia into the mix. The American system is operating at peak efficiency right now, giving us an economic and institutional advantage. Plus, our focus on the military dimension of our power eclipses any competition in that arena and is likely to persist for many years to come.
However, France, Germany and particularly Russia have considerably more unrealized potential which could be unlocked through political and economic reform. If these countries truly see themselves as beset by intolerable American domination and make the commitments necessary to challenge us in the spheres of economic performance and technological innovation, the results of that competition are by no means foregone. And this does not even consider the possibility of the Eurasian block forming closer ties with neighboring states such as China, India or Turkey.
How would we deal with an alliance of economic peers who share our basic ideology but compete forcefully for resources, cultural influence and diplomatic prestige? Unlike terrorism and Islamist extremism, this is not a problem that will yield to the application of military force. But if we continue down the road of unilateralism and deliberately dismantling international organizations that provide a framework for regulated competition and cooperation, it is a problem we are certain to face.
10:03:24 AM 
|
|
