October 2004 Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat           1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31             Sep   Nov ABOUT EA ABOUT ROB   TOPICS WE DISCUSS HERE: HOME RANTS BOOKS NOISE COMIX LINKS AND BUDDIES ARTWORK THE RAVEN INTERLUDE   SALON BLOG RANKINGS BLOG UPDATES EA REFERERS TECHNORATI         < £ Salon Bloggers & > Rate Me on BlogHop.com! help? Is my Blog HOT or NOT? Click here to visit Blogster.Net - Top Blogs! Blogroll Me!	Saturday, October 30, 2004 Electoral Prediction OK, I'm going to lay it on the line here. My prediction is: Bush 227, Kerry 284 (wins), with Ohio and Iowa too close to call on election night, but it won't matter. To get to this number, I give New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico, Washington and Oregon to Kerry, with Missouri, Arkansas, Colorado, Virginia, Arkansas, West Virginia and Nevada to Bush. If NJ and Hawaii, which are the subject of fevered speculation because they are polling so close, actually go to Bush, it means a big night for Bush in any case. Likewise, if Arkansas or Virginia goes to Kerry, it's lights-out for the Prez. See the Electoral Map here to play around with the numbers on your own. On the popular vote, 49.8% Kerry, 46.9% for Bush. Senate goes 50-50, with Daschle losing narrowly, but Bunning also going down. House is a 5 seat pickup for Dems, not enough to give them control. I expect to be here, live-blogging, on Election Night. Drop on by for some animated conversation! 12:07:20 PM    Emphasize This! [] © Copyright 2004 Rob Salkowitz. Last update: 11/3/2004; 10:11:25 AM. Emphasis Added Theme designed by Andrew Lueck and Rob Salkowitz.	GUILT BY ASSOCIATION Those with the excellent taste to link to Emphasis Added. Orcinus Mark A.R. Kleinman South Knox Bubba Busy Busy Busy Scott Rosenberg Rayne Today Pesky the Rat Dave Pollard Two Glasses Filchyboy Different Strings FIONA Marijo's Nashvlog Real Live Preacher Fried Green Al-Qaedas Dr. Omed Perils of Caffeine in the Evening Love During Wartime Ojo Caliente Rush Limbaughtomy Why Your Wife Won't Have Sex... Clever Title Goes Here Paulapalooza Avuncular Spectator Suburban Guerilla Codex Real Art (and politics and culture) Religion-Related Injuries Little Hippocrat Live from the Nuke Free Zone Modulator Our Beloved Revolutionary Sweetheart No Code Catnmus I Protest Shouting at the Rain Idiot Wind Brent's Polemics Le Pretre Noir Yet Another Damn Blog Dick Jones' Patteran Pages Andrew Bayer Seablogs Bread Crumbs The Forge     Gone but not forgotten: The Raven Patriotically Incorrect Barbaric Yawp Wall of Paul Al Hedstrom   If you would like to be on this honored list, add a link to Emphasis Added in your blogroll and drop me a line.   RELIABLE SOURCES Big Media, Bloglords, Media Watchdogs, news and opinion cites I frequent, comment on and recommend. ADVOCATES Daily Kos Atrios/Eschaton Josh Marshall Talking Points Memo Kevin Drum/Political Animal Matt Yglesias MyDD Left Coaster Hulabaloo (Digby's Blog) Corrente Brad Delong Sadly, No Altercation Steve Gilliard Oliver Willis No More Mr. Nice Blog The Shrill Blog Rude Pundit Dave Sirota Michael Berube The Blogging of the President Max Speak! Liberal Oasis Open Source Politics Crooked Timber   AUTHORITIES: Juan Cole Taegan Goddard Donkey Rising/Ruy Teixera Ernie the Attorney Media Matters Factcheck.org   AGGREGATORS: Tapped The American Street Cursor Arts and Letters Daily New Republic Online BuzzFlash Slate The Gadflyer   INDISPENSABLE: The Daily Howler Paul Krugman Nathan Newman   CONTRARIAN PERSPECTIVES Reasonable conservatives, libertarians, and wingers I like, or stuff I read to find out what the Dark Side is up to. Secular Blasphemy Jacqueline Passey Happy Carpenter Tacitus Reason American Conservative Weekly Standard National Review Online Opinion Journal (WSJ) Red State Christopher Hitchens USS Clueless (Den Beste) The Economist   AVOCATIONS & OBSESSIONS Various amusements in areas that interest me. COMICS-RELATED: Neil Gaiman Peter David Mark Evanier The Beat Grant Morrison Warren Ellis Will Eisner Denis Kitchen Agency Comicartville Ellen Forney San Diego Comic-Con Exhibit A Press   BASEBALL: The USS Mariner Baseball Prospectus   MUSIC: Dragnet Records/A-Frames John Wesley Harding Laura Cantrell   FRIENDS & MISC. Emily Scala House Press