Emphasis Added

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Getting Drafty

Kerry gets a question about the draft and, good for him, makes it about Bush's foreign policy and Iraq. Was wondering how he'd smuggle that in. Bush can't resist putting his "global test" comment in. Kerry clarifies it effectively. Bush deftly brings up the 1991 Gulf War, and Kerry's heretofore unexplained opposition to it. But it comes in a rebuttal, so Kerry can't answer back. Frankly, I'd like to hear him explain that himself.

Bush is now reading out of the NRA handbook. This would be a good place for Kerry to punt and move on. But he doesn't - he calls it a failure of leadership. And he cites the support of law enforcement for the assault weapon ban. This is obviously a case that was well-assembled in advance, because it sounds great. Way to turn a wedge issue around.

By the way, I note that comments are flakey. Probably too much traffic across the system. Apologies to those trying to chime in and getting hosed by the splendid software we're stuck with.

Incidentally, I'm seeing a tie here. Both men are strong on their points. Kerry has the truth on his side in most cases, but we've learned that that doesn't really matter in these things as long as you stand tall, finish your sentences, and don't smirk into the camera.

That said, boy does Bush look bad on this affirmative action question. I am certain the fact checkers will debunk Bush's claim to meeting with the "Black Congressional Caucus" [sic]. If they did meet, I'd have love to have been a fly on that wall.

Now, faith-based policy. Bush prays a lot. God knows we will all be doing a lot of praying if he wins.
7:17:46 PM Emphasize This! []

Social Insecurity

Bush is speaking English, but he has completely parted company with reality in terms of what he's talking about with social security. Kerry is absolutely right and Bush is absolutely wrong on the merits here. In fact, this was the great tragedy of the 2000 election, how Gore was not able to articulate that the surplus was about keeping Social Security solvent. Kerry is doing somewhat better, but it's a wonky issue and it's something the post-debate fact-checkers will need to sort out and explain to the people, assuming they take that responsibility seriously.

Bush on immigration now. To his credit, his position on this is quite clear and reasonable, so long as you're not a working class American having to compete with immigrants for those jobs. But really, there's no good answer here, and at least Bush is putting a stake in the ground. Kerry's on again about his plan. OK, fairly clear, but sounds about the same.

Now minimum wage, to Kerry. A welcome softball, and Kerry uses it to club the Repugs in the House and Senate, who have gotten off lightly in all this Presidential dialogue so far. Poverty and working-class issues are drawing some passion out of Kerry. This is a real "values" issue for D's and Kerry's treating it that way. Bush once again makes jobs about education. This is clearly a deliberate tactic. I have to ask - WHAT ABOUT PEOPLE WHO DON'T HAVE KIDS? Don't we count? Kids in schools today won't be in the workforce for 5-10 years. We're in the here-and-now.

Bush punts on Roe v. Wade, and Kerry has an interesting and strong response. And with the remaining time, he goes off on education, with facts and figures. Bush, very revealingly, says that reforming the system is more important than funding the measure. I'm sure he really believes this. And Kerry shines a light on it.
7:04:37 PM Emphasize This! []

Taxes and Promises

Schieffer's asking Kerry how he can pay for his programs. Valid issue, and Kerry sounds well prepared. The problem is, he's saying the same stuff he's been saying for the past two weeks, and Bush's team has finally solved him. If he keeps presenting a stationary target like this, he's going to get blasted by all kinds of set-piece one-liners. Bush's smile tells me this is right out of his briefing book. Mix it up, John. Mix it up!

Now Kerry is smiling while Bush is repeating talking points. The "98-tax cut" remark is drawing outright laughter. On to jobs. And somehow, Bush makes it about education. Guess what? There's not enough jobs for educated people right now. It's a structural problem, and it's not a matter of retraining. Are you going to retrain a 50-year old machinist to be a biotech engineer? But Kerry has other fish to fry. He's going after Bush all over the map. The Tony Soprano remark is obviously meant to be soundbite fodder. Don't quit your day job, Big John.

Kerry's next response on jobs is quite good. Can't stop outsourcing, but you can stop subsidizing it. Sane, reasonable policy. Fair trade - another winner. Accusing Bush of not fighting for the worker. Direct hit - Bush is coming slightly undone. "Now let ME talk to the worker." Bush's prep is obviously to go on the attack, to treat Kerry as a habitual liar, as if this were an established fact.

Now to gay rights, and Shieffer tees it up with a very interesting question to Bush, who, if he's answering from the heart about tolerance, is to be commended. But this DOMA thing is hate legislation, straight up. Judges are ruling in favor of gay marriage because plaintiffs are bringing suit, and the courts are defending their rights. That's what courts do - it's not activist or unusual. Kerry is really good on this, and he sounds like he means it.

And, while we're in the minefield, let's talk about. abortion! Kerry, against abortion, in favor of choice. Safe, legal and rare. Separation of church and state. Quoting the Bible. Very interesting, substantial answer. We'll see what Bush says, but the pizza's here, so I have to take a break
6:32:23 PM Emphasize This! []

Round Three

And they're off! At some point, I will have to take a break while our pizza comes. In the meantime, I have noticed a conspicuously more skeptical tone toward Bush in CNN's pre-debate coverage, even with the odious Paula Zahn in the chair. They actually sound ready to declare Kerry the winner outright unless he completely screws up. Very interesting what two weeks of seeing Bush up close will do to that carefully cultivated aura of dread and awe.

Here's Schieffer, Bush's golf buddy. CW on the lefty blogs is that this will mean softballs for Bush and wedge issues for Kerry, but I'm thinking it might go the other way. Schieffer seems like the type who prizes his reputation for objectivity. Now that his Bush ties (his brother is ambassador to Australia) are well-known, he may err on the side of fairness.

First question is about security. Kerry sounds a little raspy. Hope his voice holds up. That could get annoying. Bush looks frisky in the two-shot. Kerry opens droning and pedantic. He needs to diffuse this "nuisance" issue up front, because you can tell Bush is licking his chops. And here he comes. Security is supposed to be his issue. His tone is forced-confident, forced-happy, but his face is bright red. And here it comes - Bush mentions the nuisance quote. Now Kerry is repeating talking points. Bush's remark on "exaggeration" sounds like a warmed-over anti-Gore strategy. They haven't used that against Kerry yet, to my knowledge.

Bush is rambling now about the Flu vaccine. Sounds like he's just filling time. Sure, blame the Brits, ask for sacrifice. Now Kerry goes on the attack, making it about the whole health care issue. Good idea? Hard to say. One thing, though - Kerry doesn't look hungry. He's playing the "prevent defense," trying to win by not losing. Not a good trend if he can't turn it around.
6:12:43 PM Emphasize This! []

Pre-Debate Setup Test

OK, we're pushing technology into uncharted waters. Let's see how this works.

Watching the debate on CNN tonight. Last time, I felt like I was missing something on C-Span because of the way they left the split screen up the whole time. It made it hard to focus on the substance that way. Anyhow, 10 minutes and counting.
5:38:09 PM Emphasize This! []

Pre-Debate Setup Test

OK, we're pushing technology into uncharted waters. Let's see how this works.

Debate Blogging

Tune in tongiht for live-blogging of the final Kerry-Bush debate. Hopefully, the technical issues will be under control.

3:44:46 PM

Emphasize This! []