War is Me…
Since I’ve been more form than content the last couple of days, I thought I’d lead off the new-look blog with a doozie. As I indicated in my post on Monday, I’m not really excited about the prospect of war, but I no longer see any alternative. In a triumph of single-minded stubbornness not seen since the days of Lyndon Johnson, Mr. Bush and company pointed the car toward the cliff, put it in gear, gunned the motor, and then placed Saddam Hussein’s hand on the emergency break. Well, says our Prez, it’s up to him to stop it, never mind who started the situation moving in this awful direction.
Whatever the outcome of the next few weeks’ deliberations, Bush and company won the battle when the Security Council voted for 1441 in November. That’s because they sold the UN on the fundamental premise that an Iraq that was in any way not compliant with the 12-year old armistice agreement posed an unacceptable threat to the region, the US and the world. The US victory was in narrowing the issue to the purely technical question of disarmament, rather than the larger matter of regional stability or whether imposing complete disarmament on a reluctant and largely suppine Iraq was really the best course of action. However, once the vote was taken, even though it favored inspections before military options, the issue became strictly one of Iraqi compliance, not US intentions.
Unfortunately for those of us who hoped for a peaceful outcome, that was a sucker bet. Saddam is proud, ambitious, sneaky and, based on the evidence, an exceptionally poor judge of his own position. Although the reported violations so far are mostly minor, they appear to be systematic and deliberate (and even if they aren’t, who among us will stand up and vouch for Saddam’s good faith?). Furthermore, in his attempt earlier this week to challenge the validity of the inspectors’ findings and his initial refusal to destroy the Al-Sammud missile system, Saddam pulled the rug entirely out from under the idea of inspections. Even if he reconsiders his position, as it appears he might, he has demonstrated the fatal flaw of the inspection process and left anyone who pinned hopes for peace on vigorous, continuous inspections without a pot to piss in. After all, if inspections are not guaranteed to be immediately productive of full disarmament, what is their purpose?
Since the UN accepted (albeit begrudgingly) Bush’s premise that disarmament - rather than pacification - of Iraq was the only acceptable outcome, it now, in my view, has no choice but to authorize the use of force. Otherwise, it fatally compromises its credibility – and not just because Bush and company say so. You simply can’t have a unanimous vote for 1441, and three months later, in the face of a challenge to the authority of the inspectors – even in the form of a hollow, face-saving gesture of disrespect – fail to act. That’s the very definition of irrelevance and irresolution, and it would effectively destroy the ability of the UN to act decisively in any future confrontation.
Let me be clear. I think the drive to war is a foolish policy to have embarked on, and that the war itself will be tragic, costly and ultimately counter-productive to American interests. But as a course of action resulting from the logic of international diplomacy, it is now inevitable. Bush successfully manipulated the situation by making Saddam, rather than irrational American aggression or regional security, the issue last fall. France, Russia, Germany and the others took the bait, and now, in the face of Saddam's clear effort and ongoing intentions to evade and undermine the inspections, it’s too late to reopen that argument. The UN will be necessary to assist in the aftermath, adjudicate the many extremely thorny problems and costs that will result, and serve as a long-term counterweight to American ambitions. Give Bush his war, since it appears nothing will stop him anyway. But don’t give him the victory he wants – the total defeat and humiliation of the UN, and the discredit of internationalism for a generation.
9:20:51 PM 
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